In movies, tyrants take power explosively. There is a big war, a coup d’etat, or an assassination. Everyone is outraged. Everyone hates the dictator. Tanks roll through the streets as all cry out in terror: NOOOOOOOOOO!
That’s not how it works in real life, where the death of democracy is actually quite boring. Future tyrants get elected in free and fair elections and then work to undermine the freedom and fairness of future elections. And they work to undermine any limits on their own power. It is a long, boring process. There is no flashbulb moment when everyone suddenly realizes democracy is dying. But the result is the same: The leader gains the ability to hold power indefinitely, and the limits on that power are gradually chipped away until none remain.
For the past 75 years, every thoughtful mind has had to grapple with this question: What would you have done if you had been in Germany in the 1930s? The cop-out answer is, “well, I wouldn’t have been a Nazi.” The challenging question is whether you would have done anything. For some, the answer is, “I would have taken to the streets, and I would have protested either until the protests prevailed or I was jailed or killed.” And for even fewer, that’s actually true. Though, if you have never been to a protest, it’s probably not true for you. For most, the real answer is, “not much—I would have quietly opposed the Nazis, but I would have mostly just gone about my life and I wouldn’t really have done anything.”
I have never been to a protest. I’m not knocking it; it’s just not my thing. So, the 1930s Germany question has always bothered me. But a year ago, I found my answer: I would have written. I would have fought by speaking out as clearly and thoughtfully as I could, and I would have then distributed that writing to as many as would read it.
I dislike writing. That’s why I stopped blogging five years ago. I don’t enjoy it. But I can’t live with my answer to the 1930s Germany question being the “not much” answer. So, a year ago, I decided to start writing again.
I can claim a lot of education and at least some expertise in constitutional law, political science, and history. And the situation in the United States today terrifies me. It is not Germany in the 1930s, but it is American’s authoritarian moment. This is what the precipice of authoritarianism looks like. It is not exciting like in the movies. It looks like this.
So, over the past year, I have done my best to explain what history makes clear: We are in an extraordinarily dangerous moment. In every functioning democracy, there are guardrails that prevent one person from acquiring too much power. I have explained how Donald Trump has worked to break down these guardrails:
By undermining the rule of law.
By centralizing power at the federal level at the expense of states.
By threatening the norm of peaceful transitions of power.
And by using police/military forces outside the standard chain of command.
In the movies, tyrants are clearly evil—universally despised. In real life, not so much.
Take Benito Mussolini for example. Mussolini enjoyed a lot of popular support and rose to power using mostly legal means. His supporters caused quite a bit of violence and chaos, and his promise to restore law and order resonated with many people. He sewed division, calling the racial majority group superior and blaming problems on minorities. He won 64% of the vote in the 1924 national Italian election. The next year he dissolved parliament and abandoned any pretense of democracy. Opposition parties objected, but it was too late.
Trump is popular among many Americans. And many of those who dislike him as a person support his tax cuts and judicial appointments. That is to be expected during an authoritarian takeover. No wildly unpopular tyrant has ever been able to seize sufficient power to become a dictator. If you think Trump isn’t that bad, keep in mind that that type of thinking is consistent with most people’s views of every tyrant in history before the tyrant has seized absolute power.
The hallmark of a tyrant is not universal hatred but extreme divisiveness. Would-be dictators inspire great excitement among their supporters and strong hatred from their opponents. As I have explained, Trump has done exactly that, fueling racial divisions in an effort to divide the public.
Another common tactic of tyrants is to gradually erode the rights of the people: The fewer rights the people have, the more power the dictator can wield. And as I have written, Trump has worked to undermine core American freedoms, including freedom of speech, freedom of the press, and freedom of religion.
Perhaps you think I’m overreacting. That is what people usually think when others warn of catastrophe. When catastrophe is averted (as this one may be) those who warned of it are said to have overreacted. But sometimes catastrophe does strike, and then it is too late. After every catastrophic event, people look back and see plenty of others warning of the coming catastrophe, most of whom were ignored.
And I’m not the only one who is terrified. A massive number of historians and experts in authoritarianism and constitutional law have warned that we are on the verge of disaster.
Nevertheless, polls suggest that we should expect yet another close election. Most people will vote not based on the threat of the death of democracy in America, but based on typical partisan issues: tax policy, gun rights, abortion, healthcare, Supreme Court appointments, etc. That’s preposterous. Whether people realize it in time or not, this election is about whether the American people are willing to accept an authoritarian form of government. Trump has already taken many steps toward tyranny. Now is our opportunity to reject that form of government. It should be a slam dunk. But it won’t be. Look back at history. In virtually every authoritarian takeover of a democracy, there is at least one election where the people had an opportunity to reject the burgeoning tyrant and failed to do so. And in every instance, the populace mostly failed to understand that the central issue in the election was an acceptance or rejection of authoritarian rule. That is what happened in Italy in 1924 and in countless other countries since. America is on the verge of making precisely the same mistake.
Look, I know what you’re thinking: “But I REALLY care about [issue X].” For me, that issue is the Supreme Court. I follow the Supreme Court as closely as anyone, but, frankly, I’m not that concerned about the open seat right now. Do you think President Trump would comply with a Supreme Court order if he could get away with ignoring it? Of course not. He has shown time and again that he will do whatever his power allows him to do, democratic norms be damned. Is the Supreme Court important? In normal times, absolutely. But these are not normal times. One seat on the Supreme Court pales in comparison to the threat of authoritarianism. As does literally every other issue. Care about tax policy? Maybe you like Trump’s tax policy now, but what happens when we no longer have free and fair elections and you have no say over tax policy at all? We need to hold onto democracy first. Then we can go back to arguing about the details.
When I began this series of blog posts a year ago, I said I would vote for whichever candidate had the best chance of defeating Trump. My reasoning was simple: Every candidate other than Trump respected democratic principles, and that distinction makes the decision easy. It is now clear that Joe Biden has the best chance of defeating Trump. I don’t really care about Biden’s positions on healthcare, taxes, or the Supreme Court, and neither should you. If Biden ever runs against an opponent who also respects democratic principles, let’s debate those issues. For now, they are irrelevant.
I don’t find Biden exciting or inspiring. Here is how I think of Biden: If you were to take all the characteristics of Bush I, Clinton, Bush II, and Obama, throw them in a bag, and randomly pull enough out to form just one person, the result would be Biden. There were a lot of flaws with the 90s and 2000s, but they were a lot better than the last four years. At least we weren’t worried about an authoritarian takeover of our governmental system back then.
A vote for Biden is a vote to step back from the precipice of tyranny. A vote for Trump is an acceptance of authoritarian government. Not voting or voting for a third party is a shrug, the equivalent of the cop-out answer to the 1930s Germany question. I hate to sound hyperbolic. Those who have followed my writing for the past decade know I’m not prone to hyperbole. The problem is that so much is at stake in this election that to accurately describe it is necessarily to sound hyperbolic. It’s that important.